Democrats have chance Join Gerindra Coalition AHY is not chosen Anies vice presidential candidate
The Democratic Party is predicted to leave the Coalition for Change for Unity if their general chairman, Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono (AHY), is not selected as the vice presidential candidate (cawapres) to accompany Anies Baswedan.
Furthermore, the Democrats are considered to have the opportunity to join the Greater Indonesia Awakening Coalition initiated by the Gerindra Party and the National Awakening Party (PKB) to support Prabowo Subianto.
"AHY and Democrats could join Gerindra in supporting Prabowo," said the Director of the Nusakom Pratama Institute for Political Studies, Ari Junaedi, to Kompas.com, Friday (9/6/2023).
Indeed, if he joins the Gerindra axis, it is not certain that AHY will be chosen as Prabowo's vice presidential candidate. However, at least, with great electability, Prabowo's potential for victory is far higher than Anies.
Thus, the political benefits offered by the Gerindra camp are more promising than the Change Coalition initiated by the Democrats along with the Nasdem Party and the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS).
"Even if Prabowo doesn't become vice presidential candidate, of course the political bargain from Gerindra will be far better than Nasdem for those who often underestimate Democrats," said Ari.
Ari also considered that the Democrats' insistence on the Change Coalition to speed up the declaration of Anies' vice presidential candidate was politically charged. This effort is suspected as a square off for the Democrats to leave the coalition if Anies does not appoint AHY as the RI-2 candidate.
If the declaration of a vice presidential candidate is made in the near future and AHY is not chosen, then the Democrats will still have enough time to find a new coalition to anchor, which is considered more profitable than the Change Coalition.
It is believed that the Democrats have political calculations and mature calculations, whether to remain in the Coalition for Change, or to maneuver in the midst of Anies's declining electability.
"Just like in stock trading, the Democrats must take quick steps, whether to release shares in the midst of a declining share price, or to continue to own shares even though they have the potential to bring losses later," said Ari.
Ari continued, the Democrats were indeed impressed that they were still not optimal in supporting Anies. Compared to Anies, it is considered that the Mercy Star Party is still more "selling" AHY.
This is evident from the many billboards promoting AHY in various regions instead of marketing Anies.
"Democrats seem ambiguous, between being shy about selling Anies, but continuing to promote AHY at every opportunity," said the lecturer at the University of Indonesia.
As is well known, the Democrats are urging the Change Coalition for Unity to immediately declare Anies' vice presidential candidate, at least in June 2023.
Anies's electability which continues to decline is seen as a result of the name of the cawapres not yet being announced. In addition, according to the Democrats, voting day for the 2024 election is getting closer.
However, this idea was rejected by Nasdem, a fellow member of the Coalition for Change. The party founded by Surya Paloh asked the Democrats not to put pressure on the vice presidential candidate declaration.
Deputy Chairperson of the Nasdem Party Ahmad Ali reminded that one of the points of the cooperation charter for the formation of the Change Coalition for Unity gave Anies a mandate as a presidential candidate to choose his cawapres candidate according to five predetermined criteria.
"I hope that all political parties are consistent with his statement, because Anies is not looking for a deputy village head, but looking for a vice president," Ali said to Kompas.com, Thursday (8/6/2023).
At the same time, Ali questioned the attitude of the Democrats, which he considered inconsistent. On the one hand, the Democrats are urging the acceleration of the vicepres declaration.
However, on the other hand, the Mercy Star Party has never featured Anies in its billboards or socialization materials.
Ali even accused this push as a threat from the Democrats who wanted to leave the Coalition for Change if AHY was not chosen as Anies' running mate.
"Actually, to be honest, "Actually, to be honest, if AHY isn't the deputy, I want to step down. Just say so," he said.
Demokrat Berpeluang Merapat ke Koalisi Gerindra jika AHY Tak Dipilih Anies Jadi Cawapres
Partai Demokrat diprediksi hengkang dari Koalisi Perubahan untuk Persatuan seandainya ketua umum mereka, Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono (AHY), tak dipilih sebagai calon wakil presiden (cawapres) pendamping Anies Baswedan.
Selanjutnya, Demokrat dinilai berpeluang bergabung dengan Koalisi Kebangkitan Indonesia Raya yang digagas Partai Gerindra bersama Partai Kebangkitan Bangsa (PKB) untuk mengusung Prabowo Subianto.
“AHY dan Demokrat bisa saja bergabung dengan Gerindra untuk mendukung Prabowo,” kata Direktur Lembaga Kajian Politik Nusakom Pratama, Ari Junaedi, kepada Kompas .com, Jumat (9/6/2023).
Memang, jika bergabung dengan poros Gerindra, belum tentu juga AHY dipilih jadi cawapres Prabowo. Namun, setidaknya, dengan elektabilitas yang besar, potensi kemenangan Prabowo jauh lebih tinggi ketimbang Anies.
Dengan demikian, keuntungan politik yang ditawarkan kubu Gerindra lebih menjanjikan dibanding Koalisi Perubahan yang digagas Demokrat bersama Partai Nasdem dan Partai Keadilan Sejahtera (PKS).
“Kalaupun tidak jadi cawapres dari Prabowo, tentu bargain politik dari Gerindra akan jauh kebih baik dari Nasdem bagi yang sering menyepelekan Demokrat,” ujar Ari.
Ari pun menilai, desakan Demokrat terhadap Koalisi Perubahan untuk mempercepat deklarasi cawapres Anies bermuatan politis. Upaya itu diduga sebagai ancang-ancang Demokrat hengkang dari koalisi seandainya Anies tak menunjuk AHY sebagai calon RI-2.
Jika deklarasi cawapres dilakukan dalam waktu dekat dan bukan AHY yang dipilih, maka Demokrat masih punya cukup waktu mencari koalisi baru untuk berlabuh, yang dinilai lebih menguntungkan ketimbang Koalisi Perubahan.
Demokrat diyakini punya kalkulasi politik dan hitung-hitungan yang matang, apakah tetap bertahan di poros Koalisi Perubahan, atau bermanuver di tengah terus merosotnya elektabilitas Anies.
“Ibarat di perdagangan saham, Demokrat harus mengambil langkah cepat, apakah akan melepas saham di tengah harga saham yang semakin merosot, ataukah tetap bertahan memiliki saham walau nantinya berpotensi mendatangkan kerugian,” kata Ari.
Ari melanjutkan, Demokrat memang terkesan masih belum maksimal dalam mendukung Anies. Ketimbang Anies, partai bintang mercy itu dinilai masih lebih banyak “menjual” AHY.
Ini terbukti dari banyaknya baliho-baliho yang mempromosikan AHY di berbagai daerah ketimbang memasarkan Anies.
“Demokrat terkesan ambigu, antara malu-malu menjual Anies, tapi terus menjajakkan AHY di setiap kesempatan,” tutur Dosen Universitas Indonesia itu.
Sebagaimana diketahui, Demokrat mendesak Koalisi Perubahan untuk Persatuan agar segera mendeklarasikan cawapres Anies, setidaknya Juni 2023.
Elektabilitas Anies yang terus menurun dinilai sebagai akibat dari belum diumumkannya nama cawapres. Selain itu, menurut Demokrat, hari pemungutan suara Pemilu 2024 kian dekat.
Namun demikian, gagasan tersebut ditolak Nasdem, sesama anggota Koalisi Perubahan. Partai besutan Surya Paloh itu meminta Demokrat tak menekan-nekan soal deklarasi cawapres.
Wakil Ketua Umum Partai Nasdem Ahmad Ali mengingatkan, salah satu poin piagam kerja sama pembentukan Koalisi Perubahan untuk Persatuan memberi mandat pada Anies selaku bakal capres untuk memilih bakal cawapresnya sesuai lima kriteria yang telah ditentukan.
“Saya berharap semua parpol itu konsisten dengan pernyataannya, karena Anies ini sedang tidak mencari wakil kepala desa, tapi mencari wakil presiden,” kata Ali pada Kompas.com, Kamis (8/6/2023).
Bersamaan dengan itu, Ali mempertanyakan sikap Demokrat yang ia nilai tak konsisten. Di satu sisi, Demokrat mendesak percepatan deklarasi cawapres.
Namun, di sisi lain, partai bintang mercy tersebut tak pernah mengangkat Anies dalam baliho atau materi sosialisasinya.
Ali bahkan menuding desakan ini sebagai ancaman dari Demokrat yang hendak hengkang dari Koalisi Perubahan jika AHY tak dipilih jadi calon pendamping Anies.
“Sebenarnya berterus terang saja, “Sebenarnya berterus terang saja, kalau bukan AHY jadi wakil, mau mundur. Bilang saja begitu,” tandasnya.