Discourse of forming a grand coalition continues to roll. So, will the grand coalition bring up Prabowo vs the PDIP presidential candidate volume 3 in the upcoming 2024 elections?
For your information, Prabowo has faced presidential candidates from PDIP, namely Joko Widodo (Jokowi), in the 2014 presidential election and the 2019 presidential election. Jokowi was elected president in the two presidential elections.
Political Observer from USU's FISIP, Indra Fauzan, assessed that Prabowo vs the PDIP presidential candidate could happen. However, the grand coalition has yet to be formed.
"It could happen like that. But until now it hasn't been formed," Indra said when contacted, Saturday (8/4/2023).
Indra Fauzan also said that the large coalition needed to communicate more intensely regarding the position of the presidential candidate. Because, according to him, the position is still subject to change.
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"The large coalition also needs to make more intense communication because the position of this presidential candidate is still prone to change even though the framework for the agreement has been seen," he said. PDIP is considered not to be easily influenced by a large coalition. According to him, PDIP was smart enough to take a stand by not attending the 5 party meeting with Jokowi.
"PDIP is certainly not easily influenced or intimidated by this large coalition, so they remain firm with their strategy. They are also quite smart by not attending the meeting," said Indra Fauzan.
Meanwhile, a political observer who is also the Executive Director of Charta Politika Indonesia Yunarto Wijaya gave a different view. Yunarto thinks it is difficult to say that the Grand Coalition will materialize.
"Firstly, this grand coalition is also still an embryo, yes, because it has only met once, so it is rather difficult to say that this has somewhat materialized," said Yunarto when contacted separately.
Yunarto sees the possibility of PDIP being involved in the Grand Coalition. However, PDIP's involvement in the Grand Coalition can be realized if one of the parties gives in as vice presidential candidate.
"Second, judging from the statements that were present there, including PPP, said that the PDI Perjuangan would most likely be involved. So if I read, the ideal goal of this grand coalition is that the initial goal is to position ourselves as solid as part of a coalition supporting Jokowi to face the Coalition for Change," he said.
"But the grand coalition in the contest involving the PDI Perjuangan, in my opinion, is only possible if, for example, between the PDI Perjuangan presidential candidate the PDI Perjuangan or the presidential candidate Gerindra, then one of them becomes the vice presidential candidate. In my opinion, PDIP will join the grand coalition if there is an agreement with Gerindra to become cawapres," he continued.
However, Yunarto assessed that if neither party gave in, then it is likely that the Grand Coalition could face PDIP.
"But if none of the two wants to be vice presidential candidate, say for example the PDI Perjuangan nominate Ganjar, Gerindra nominate Prabowo and none of them wants to become cawapres, it is almost certain that the coalition will face the PDI Perjuangan," he said.
Even so, according to Yunarto, PDIP will not be alone in dealing with the Grand Coalition. Because, according to him, there will be other parties in the Grand Coalition that will join the PDIP.
"But will the PDI Perjuangan be left alone and face the Grand Coalition? I'm not sure, because I tend to see that among the parties that meet, it is very likely that one or two of them will also join the PDI Perjuangan. If there is a party in the middle of joining a grand coalition and its contents are many parties, they will usually be disadvantaged by their position of power. Because there are more and more participants, the number of ministers that can be distributed is less," said Yunarto.