IPO survey: Anies outperforms Ganjar and Prabowo, AHY's favorite vice presidential candidate
The Indonesian Political Opinion (IPO) survey institute released the results of a survey on the electability of the 2024 presidential candidates. As a result, Anies Baswedan is at the top, followed by Ganjar Pranowo and Prabowo Subianto.
The survey was conducted on March 1-7 2023 with a total sample of 1,200 respondents. This method has a margin of error of 2.90 percent with a data accuracy rate of 95 percent. The sampling setting uses a multistage random sampling (MRS) technique or multilevel sampling.
Respondents were initially asked to choose a presidential candidate from the 15 names prepared. The result is as follows:
Anies Baswedan: 31.6%
Ganjar Pranowo: 24.9%
Prabowo Subianto: 21.1%
Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono: 6.2%
Ridwan Kamil: 3.1%
Erick Thohir: 2.4%
Puan Maharani: 2.1%
Sandiaga Uno: 1.9%
Andika Perkasa: 1.6%
Muhaimin Iskandar: 1.4%
Airlangga Hartanto: 0.9%
Zulkifli Hasan: 0.1%
Surya Paloh: 0.1%
Ahmad Syaikhu: 0.0%
Mardiono: 0.0%
Don't know/don't answer/secret: 2.6%
These names were then reduced to 5 closed names with the following results:
Anies Baswedan: 32.6%
Ganjar Pranowo: 26.8%
Prabowo Subianto: 25.1%
Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono: 7.0%
Puan Maharani: 3.9%.
Then, the respondents were presented with a choice of three names for the 2024 presidential candidate. As a result, Anies Baswedan still took first place with 34.7%, followed by Ganjar Pranowo 29.6% and Prabowo Subianto 27.5%.
Meanwhile, the name of the General Chair of the Democratic Party Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono came out as the favorite Candidate for Vice President (Cawapres) in the IPO survey version with an election rate of 19.5%. The next position was occupied by Ridwan Kamil 17.2%, Sandiaga Uno 11.7%, Erick Thohir 9.5%, and Andika Perkasa 3.7%.
The IPO also conducted a simulation of the 2024 presidential and vice presidential pairs in three formations. The first formation, Anies Baswedan and Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono, came out as the winner with an electability rate of 39.1%. Followed by the Ganjar Pranowo-Airlangga Hartanto 28.9% and Prabowo Subianto-Puan Maharani 21.6%.
Meanwhile, in the second formation, the Ganjar Pranowo-Erick Thohir pair leads with an electability rate of 36.8%. Followed by Prabowo Subianto-Muhaimin Iskandar 31.5% and Airlangga Hartarto-Ridwan Kamil 19.4%.
The last formation, Anies Baswedan-Erick Thohir, is in first place with an electability rate of 38.5%. Followed by Prabowo Subianto-Khofifah Indar Parawansa 27.3% and Ganjar Pranowo-Puan Maharani 21.9%.
Survei IPO: Anies Ungguli Ganjar dan Prabowo, AHY Cawapres Favorit
Lembaga survei Indonesia Political Opinion (IPO) merilis hasil survei elektabilitas calon presiden (capres) 2024. Hasilnya, Anies Baswedan berada di urutan teratas, disusul Ganjar Pranowo dan Prabowo Subianto.
Survei dilakukan pada 1-7 Maret 2023 dengan jumlah sampel responden sebanyak 1.200. Metode ini memiliki pengukuran kesalahan (margin of error) 2,90 persen dengan tingkat akurasi data 95 persen. Setting pengambilan sampel menggunakan teknik multistage random sampling (MRS) atau pengambilan sampel bertingkat.
Responden mulanya diminta memilih capres dari 15 nama yang disiapkan. Hasilnya adalah sebagai berikut:
Anies Baswedan: 31,6%
Ganjar Pranowo: 24,9%
Prabowo Subianto: 21,1%
Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono: 6,2%
Ridwan Kamil: 3,1%
Erick Thohir: 2,4%
Puan Maharani: 2,1%
Sandiaga Uno: 1,9%
Andika Perkasa: 1,6%
Muhaimin Iskandar: 1,4%
Airlangga Hartanto: 0,9%
Zulkifli Hasan: 0,1%
Surya Paloh: 0,1%
Ahmad Syaikhu: 0,0%
Mardiono: 0,0%
Tidak tahu/tidak jawab/rahasia: 2,6%
Nama-nama tersebut kemudian dikerucutkan menjadi 5 nama tertutup dengan hasil sebagai berikut:
Anies Baswedan: 32,6%
Ganjar Pranowo: 26,8%
Prabowo Subianto: 25,1%
Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono: 7,0%
Puan Maharani: 3,9%.
Kemudian, responden pun disuguhi skema pilihan tiga nama capres 2024. Hasilnya, Anies Baswedan tetap menempati posisi pertama sebesar 34,7% disusul Ganjar Pranowo 29,6% dan Prabowo Subianto 27,5%.
Sementara itu, nama Ketua Umum Partai Demokrat Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono keluar sebagai Calon Wakil Presiden (Cawapres) favorit versi survei IPO dengan tingkat pemilihan 19,5%. Posisi selanjutnya ditempati oleh Ridwan Kamil 17,2%, Sandiaga Uno 11,7%, Erick Thohir 9,5%, dan Andika Perkasa 3,7%.
IPO juga melakukan simulasi pasangan capres dan cawapres 2024 dalam tiga formasi. Formasi pertama, pasangan Anies Baswedan dan Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono keluar sebagai pemenang dengan tingkat keterpilihan 39,1%. Disusul oleh paslon Ganjar Pranowo-Airlangga Hartanto 28,9% dan Prabowo Subianto-Puan Maharani 21,6%.
Sementara itu, dalam formasi kedua, paslon Ganjar Pranowo-Erick Thohir memimpin dengan tingkat keterpilihan 36,8%. Disusul Prabowo Subianto-Muhaimin Iskandar 31,5% dan Airlangga Hartarto-Ridwan Kamil 19,4%.
Formasi terakhir, pasangan Anies Baswedan-Erick Thohir berada di urutan pertama dengan tingkat keterpilihan 38,5%. Disusul Prabowo Subianto-Khofifah Indar Parawansa 27,3% dan Ganjar Pranowo-Puan Maharani 21,9%.