New York -- A political expert and presidential historian who correctly predicted the winner of the United States presidential election (pilpres) revealed his prediction regarding the winner of the 2024 US presidential election.
Allan Lichtman, a historian who only once failed to predict the winner of the 2000 presidential election, said that the contest this time would most likely be won by the Democratic presidential candidate, Kamala Harris.
"Harris will be a trailblazing new president [of the United States], the first female president, and the first president of mixed African and Asian heritage," Lichtman said in an interview with NDTV.
In an interview with CNN, Lichtman explained that there were 13 key points on which he based his predictions.
The thirteen points include party mandate, contestation, office, third parties, short-term economics, long-term economics, policy changes, social unrest, scandals, military/foreign policy failures, military/foreign policy successes, incumbent charisma, and charismachallenger.
Lichtman excluded opinion polls in this assessment. According to him, the survey results cannot be trusted because humans tend to be dynamic.
"Why do I believe Harris will win? Because her vote share is slim in the polls and my system ignores the polls," said Lichtman.
"[Polls cannot be trusted because people can] lie, change their minds, and [pollers have to guess who the likely voters are," he continued.
Even though he has made such predictions, Lichtman agrees that his estimates could also be wrong. He said that if his predictions were wrong, then US democracy would really be in danger.
"If I am wrong, then our democracy will be in very serious danger. Democracy is valuable. But democracy can be destroyed and is almost always destroyed from within. "And unfortunately, the trend of this century is the decline of democracy around the world, and I worry about our country," he said.
The United States will hold a presidential election on November 5. This contest was joined by Vice President Kamala Harris from the Democratic Party and former President Donald Trump from the Republican Party.
A number of recent polls show that there is a tight race between Harris and Trump.
Moreover, in the 'battleground' states, the electability of Harris and Trump is still difficult to predict, even though Trump currently tends to 'control' these states.
New York --
Seorang pakar politik sekaligus sejarawan kepresidenan yang sembilan kali benar memprediksi pemenang pemilihan presiden (pilpres) Amerika Serikat mengungkap prediksinya mengenai pemenang pilpres AS 2024.Allan Lichtman, sejarawan yang cuma sekali gagal memprediksi pemenang pilpres tahun 2000, mengatakan bahwa kontestasi kali ini kemungkinan besar akan dimenangkan oleh calon presiden dari Partai Demokrat, Kamala Harris.
"Harris akan menjadi presiden baru [Amerika Serikat] yang membuka jalan, presiden wanita pertama, dan presiden pertama yang berdarah campuran Afrika dan Asia," kata Lichtman dalam wawancaranya dengan NDTV.
Dalam wawancara bersama CNN, Lichtman menjelaskan bahwa ada 13 poin kunci yang menjadi landasan prediksinya tersebut.
Ketiga belas poin itu antara lain mandat partai, kontestasi, jabatan, pihak ketiga, ekonomi jangka pendek, ekonomi jangka panjang, perubahan kebijakan, kerusuhan sosial, skandal, kegagalan militer/kebijakan luar negeri, keberhasilan militer/kebijakan luar negeri, kharisma petahana, serta kharisma penantang.
Lichtman mengecualikan jajak pendapat dalam penilaiannya ini. Menurut dia, hasil survei tak bisa dipercaya karena manusia cenderung dinamis.
"Mengapa saya yakin Harris akan menang? Karena perolehan suaranya tipis di jajak pendapat dan sistem saya mengabaikan jajak pendapat," kata Lichtman.
"[Jajak pendapat tak bisa dipercaya karena orang bisa] berbohong, berubah pikiran, dan [para penyelenggara survei harus menebak siapa saja kemungkinan pemilihnya," lanjutnya.
Meski telah memprediksi demikian, Lichtman mengamini bahwa perkiraannya juga bisa salah. Dia berujar jika prediksinya keliru, maka demokrasi AS benar-benar dalam bahaya.
"Jika saya salah, maka demokrasi kita akan berada dalam bahaya yang sangat serius. Demokrasi itu berharga. Tapi demokrasi dapat dihancurkan dan hampir selalu dihancurkan dari dalam. Dan sayangnya, tren abad ini adalah kemunduran demokrasi di seluruh dunia, dan saya khawatir mengenai negara kita," ucap dia.
Amerika Serikat akan menggelar pemilihan presiden pada 5 November ini. Kontestasi ini diikuti oleh Wakil Presiden Kamala Harris dari Partai Demokrat dan mantan Presiden Donald Trump dari Partai Republik.
Sejumlah jajak pendapat terbaru menunjukkan bahwa ada persaingan ketat antara Harris dan Trump.
Lebih dari itu, di negara-negara bagian yang menjadi 'medan pertempuran', elektabilitas Harris dan Trump masih sulit diprediksi, meski saat ini Trump cenderung 'menguasai' negara-negara bagian tersebut.
