New Calamity! Double Crisis Hits the European Union
Russia's invasion of Ukraine has sparked fears of a potential geopolitical and economic "dual crisis."
There has been a downward trend in quarterly GDP growth since early 2022, with GDP consistently declining and inflation still far from target.
Disruption of energy supply in the supply chain necessitates the European Union "energy self-sufficiency," which has affected inflation and business activity.
Jakarta, CNBC Indonesia - Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 sparked fears of an economic slowdown in Europe. The region with the world's 3rd largest level of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is threatened with a "double crisis" even though it has the potential to be able to avoid the risk of a recession.
The Russo-Ukrainian war forced the European Union to experience two crises at once, namely the geopolitical and economic crises.
The Euro area is still able to increase its economic growth in 2022 by 3.5% on an annual basis (year on year/yoy). However, there has been a downward trend in EU quarterly GDP growth since early 2022. The European Union's quarterly GDP has consistently fallen for five consecutive quarters. As of the second quarter of 2023, the European Union's GDP only grew 0.6% (yoy).
A number of powerful countries in the European Union even experienced contraction or even recession. The Netherlands is already experiencing a recession while Italy and Sweden have recorded economic contractions in the second quarter of 2023. Germany, as Europe's economic engine, has recorded stagnant growth and is on the brink of recession.
Despite this, Paolo Gentiloni, European Commissioner for Economic Affairs, told CNBC International, "But please don't call this a recession, because I think we can avoid a recession, we are avoiding a recession."
However, these statements did not receive strong support from the European Union economic data. Gentiloni views the risk of a double crisis occurring on the geopolitical and economic side.
From a geopolitical perspective, Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February last year triggered unfavorable relations between the countries. This has an impact on the war of influence policy against affiliated countries that support Ukraine.
On the other hand, this problem has also raised serious concerns in Europe that the region will experience a significant economic slowdown. This is because the attack caused disruption to the energy supply chain, considering that Russia is one of the world's largest energy suppliers.
The European Union, which has also helped maintain its image of rejecting the Russian invasion, has decided to reject Russian products, also known as dumping. Facing this, Russia counterattacked by turning off its gas energy supply to Europe, one of which was by stopping the gas supply from the Nord Stream pipeline.
This causes European energy demand to shift to energy sources other than gas, namely coal. The high surge in demand pushed the price of black sand to shoot up to US$450 per ton.
Energy commodities, which are basic materials for various industries, of course, the price increase will affect the surge in various other goods, so that it will also be a factor in inflation.
European 'energy independence' challenge Europe, which is threatened by energy disruptions, must secure alternative energy supplies, most of which until now have also come from Russia. This problem has prompted several European countries to provide relief to consumers who face high energy costs.
"Why is our economy experiencing a slowdown after a strong rebound post-pandemic? I think it's because of the challenges of achieving energy independence, which is taking a huge toll on our families and fueling inflation," Gentiloni said.
However, recent economic data has raised concerns about a slowdown. For example, European business activity contracted during August, which was even lower than in the Covid-19 era in November 2020.
The European Union relies on Russia for 70% of its thermal coal supplies and 40% of its gas supplies. The European Union also imports wheat as a food commodity in large quantities from Russia and Ukraine, so the war makes food prices in the region fly. As a result, inflation was flying.
Inflation has eased in recent months, but the latest data shows stable inflation figures were still high in August compared to the previous month at 5.3% (year on year/yoy). Although lower than earlier this year, this figure is still far above the target of the European Central Bank (ECB) of 2%.
High inflation in the European Union then forced the European Central Bank (ECB) to raise its benchmark interest rate to 425 bps since July last year. With a spike in interest rates, of course, demand will be affected so that consumption and investment in the European Union will also fall.
Malapetaka Baru! Krisis Ganda Hantam Uni Eropa
Invasi Rusia ke Ukraina telah memicu kekhawatiran potensi "krisis ganda" geopolitik dan ekonomi.
Terdapat tren penurunan pertumbuhan PDB secara kuartalan sejak awal tahun 2022, dengan PDB konsisten menurun dan inflasi masih jauh dari target.
Gangguan pasokan energi pada rantai pasokan mengharuskan Uni Eropa "Mandiri energi," yang telah mempengaruhi inflasi dan aktivitas bisnis.
- Invasi serangan yang dilakukan Russia ke Ukraina pada Februari 2022 memicu kekhawatiran perlambatan ekonomi di Eropa. Kawasan dengan tingkat Pendapatan Domestik Bruto (PDB) terbesar ke-3 dunia terancam mengalami "krisis ganda" walau berpotensi mampu menghindari dari risiko resesi.
Perang Rusia-Ukraina membuat Uni Eropa harus mengalami dua krisis sekaligus yakni krisis geopolitik dan ekonomi.
Kawasan Euro masih mampu meningkatkan pertumbuhan ekonominya pada tahun 2022 sebesar 3,5% secara tahunan (year on year/yoy). Namun, terdapat tren penurunan pada pertumbuhan PDB secara kuartalan Uni Eropa sejak awal tahun 2022. PDB kuartalan Uni Eropa konsisten turun dalam lima kuartal berturut-turut. Per kuartal-II 2023, PDB Uni Eropa hanya bertumbuh 0,6% (yoy).
Sejumlah negara kuat di Uni Eropa bahkan mengalami kontraksi atau malah resesi. Belanda sudah mengalami resesi sementara Italia dan Swedia sudah mencatat kontraksi ekonomi pada kuartal II-2023. Jerman sebagai motor ekonomi Eropa mencatatkan pertumbuhan stagnan dan berdiri di jurang resesi.
Kendati demikian, Paolo Gentiloni, Komisaris Eropa untuk Urusan Ekonomi, mengatakan kepada CNBC International, "Namun tolong jangan sebut ini sebagai resesi, karena menurut saya kita dapat menghindari resesi, kita sedang menghindari resesi."
Namun, pernyataan tersebut tidak mendapat dukungan kuat dari data perekonomian Uni Eropa. Gentiloni memandang risiko krisis ganda terjadi pada sisi geopolitik dan ekonomi.
Dari segi geopolitik, invasi Rusia ke Ukraina pada bulan Februari tahun lalu memicu hubungan antar negara yang kurang baik. Hal ini berdampak pada kebijakan perang pengaruh terhadap negara afiliasi yang mendukung Ukraina.
Di sisi lain, permasalahan ini juga menimbulkan kekhawatiran serius di Eropa bahwa kawasan tersebut akan mengalami perlambatan ekonomi yang signifikan. Pasalnya, serangan tersebut menyebabkan gangguan rantai pasok energi, mengingat Rusia sebagai salah satu negara pemasok energi terbesar global.
Uni Eropa yang juga turut menjaga imejnya yang menolak invasi Rusia memutuskan untuk menolak produk-produk Rusia atau biasa disebut dengan dumping. Menghadapi hal tersebut, Rusia memberikan serangan balasan dengan mematikan pasokan energi gas nya ke Eropa, salah satunya dengan menghentikan pasokan gas pipa Nord Stream.
Hal ini menyebabkan permintaan energi Eropa beralih ke sumber energi selain gas yaitu batu bara. Tingginya lonjakan permintaan mendorong harga si pasir hitam melesat sempat mencapai US$450 per ton.
Komoditas energi yang merupakan bahan dasar untuk berbagai industri tentu saja kenaikan harganya akan mempengaruhi lonjakan berbagai barang lainnya, sehingga turut menjadi faktor terjadinya inflasi.
Tantangan 'kemandirian energi' Eropa
Eropa yang terancam dari gangguan energi harus mengamankan pasokan energi alternatif, yang hingga saat ini sebagian besar juga berasal dari Rusia. Masalah ini mendorong beberapa negara Eropa memberikan keringanan kepada konsumen yang menghadapi tingginya biaya energi.
"Mengapa perekonomian kita mengalami perlambatan setelah rebound yang kuat pasca pandemi? Saya pikir ini karena tantangan untuk mencapai kemandirian energi, yang sangat merugikan keluarga kami dan memicu inflasi," kata Gentiloni.
Namun, data ekonomi terkini telah menimbulkan kekhawatiran mengenai perlambatan. Misalnya, aktivitas bisnis Eropa mengalami kontraksi selama bulan Agustus, yang bahkan lebih rendah dibanding era covid-19 pada November 2020.
Uni Eropa menggantungkan 70% pasokan batu bara thermal dan 40% pasokan gas kepada Rusia. Uni Eropa juga mengimpor gandum dalam komoditas pangan dalam jumlah besar dari Rusia dan Ukraina sehingga perang membuat harga makanan di kawasan tersebut terbang. Alhasil, inflasi pun terbang.
Inflasi telah mereda dalam beberapa bulan terakhir, namun data terbaru menunjukkan angka inflasi stabil masih tinggi di bulan Agustus dibandingkan bulan sebelumnya di 5,3% (year on year/yoy). Meskipun lebih rendah dibandingkan awal tahun ini, angka tersebut masih jauh di atas target Bank Sentral Eropa (European Central Bank/ECB) sebesar 2%.
Inflasi tinggi di Uni Eropa pun kemudian memaksa bank sentral Eropa (ECB) untuk mengerek suku bunga acuan hingga 425 bps sejak Juli tahun lalu. Dengan lonjakan suku bunga tentu saja permintaan akan terdampak sehingga konsumsi hingga investasi di Uni Eropa pun turun.