Jokowi's proud project bears sweet fruit, Europe deserves revenge
Photo: Infographics/ RI Masters This 'Treasure', Europe is Made Hot and Cold/Aristya Rahadian
Jakarta, CNBC Indonesia - During the end of his term as President of the Republic of Indonesia, President Joko Widodo (Jokowi) continued to emphasize his commitment to end the export of raw materials. Therefore, Jokowi asked all parties to have the courage to maintain the downstream program that has been started.
Previously, Jokowi said that exports of raw materials carried out by Indonesia had been going on since the Dutch VOC era, which had been for more than 400 years. The President believes that this does not provide added value to Indonesia.
Apart from that, Jokowi also explained that similar incidents also occurred in 1970 and 1980, when many of the commodities owned by Indonesia did not provide added value to state revenues.
So that the government continues to promote the downstream program to provide added value to state income. Jokowi also gave a real example in this regard, namely the export value which jumped after stopping the export of raw nickel.
Jokowi said, before downstreaming, Indonesia's raw material exports a year only pocketed approximately US$ 2.1 billion, meaning only around Rp. 32 trillion, once it was downstreamed and industrialized it became US$ 33.8 billion, from Rp. 32 trillion to approximately Rp. 510 trillion.
Jokowi also said that before downstreaming job opportunities and job openings were in other countries, after downstreaming job opportunities were opened within the country. Because, from nickel, the state once again gets VAT (Value Added Tax), company PPH, employee PPH, royalties, non-tax state revenue, and export duties.
Jokowi assessed that in the future, when exports of raw materials for a number of other commodities are also stopped, this could encourage the opening of domestic employment opportunities again.
Jokowi also stressed that this downstream program did not stop only in the mineral industry, but also in other sectors. For this reason, the President invited entrepreneurs to participate in supporting the downstream program.
The Minister of Investment, Bahlil Lahadalia, also said that the downstream program currently being run by the government can also provide added value to regional economic growth. Encouraging investment outside Java continues to be encouraged.
The Ministry of Investment has issued Minister of Investment Regulation number 1 of 2022 which encourages collaboration between large investments and national entrepreneurs in the regions. Bahlil said that this regulation was made to encourage investment in the regions for economic equality.
Bahlil also said that investment encouragement outside Java continues to be intensified to realize the vision of Indonesia-centric development that is not only centered on Java.
Bahlil explained that since the third quarter of 2020 investment realization outside Java Island has always been greater than Java Island by 50.5%, and continues to grow until the second quarter of 2023 investment outside Java Island has covered 53%.
Bahlil wants equitable economic growth from Aceh to Papua.
For example, a downstream industrial area in a region that contributes to regional economic growth is the Indonesia Weda Bay Industrial Park (IWIP) area in Central Halmahera, North Maluku.
This industrial area is one of the processing places for nickel ore refining. According to data collected from the Ministry of Investment, North Maluku's economic growth from 2018 to 2020 was below 10%.
After entering 2021 North Maluku's economic growth increased to 16.79% and rose to 22.94% in 2022 and the first semester of 2023 was at 20.26%. The IWIP industrial area has also succeeded in absorbing workers from the surrounding community.
Bahlil also said that the downstream program, especially nickel, was very important as a driver for the automotive industry which is currently moving towards utilizing green energy through electric cars.
Based on USGS data in January 2020 and the Geological Agency 2019, quoting from the Nickel Booklet released by the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) 2020, Indonesia's nickel reserves are recorded at 72 million tonnes of nickel (including limonite/low grade nickel). This amount reaches 52% of the world's total nickel reserves of 139,419,000 tonnes of nickel.
Downstreaming the nickel industry can produce various types of products such as ferronickel, nickel pig iron (NPI), stainless steel, and nickel-based battery components for electric vehicles.
Nickel ore can be processed into FeNi/Concentrate, then further processed into Ni-Sulfate and Co-Sulfate. After that, it is further processed into precursors which are the basic material for battery materials. It is from this battery base material that a battery of the Lithium-ion Battery (LiB) type is produced.
Nickel prices are expected to remain high for at least the next two decades due to the transition from fossil energy to environmentally friendly energy.
Nickel is an important component in making electric vehicle batteries so demand is expected to increase sharply as electric vehicle production increases.
Electric car components consist of 40% battery and 60% frame. Battery components are nickel, cobalt, manganese and lithium.
With the huge potential it has, nickel downstream is expected to be one of the important keys to achieving Indonesia gold in 2045.
The passion for nickel downstreaming as well as the government's commitment to promoting energy transition have also contributed to boosting sales of electric vehicles.
As additional information, until the first semester of 2023 sales of electric cars in Indonesia continued to increase.
According to a report by the Association of Indonesian Automotive Industries (Gaikindo), sales of electric cars in Indonesia during the first semester of 2023 were 23,154 units. This figure has exceeded sales in 2022 of 15,437 units.
Sales of battery-based battery cars (BEV) in Indonesia totaled 17,280 units during the first half of 2023, from January to June 2023. This figure also exceeded sales in 2022 of 10,327.
Then, sales of hybrid electric cars in Indonesia during the first semester of 2023 also increased to 5,849 units. This figure also exceeds the sales figure in 2022 of 5,100.
Downstreaming Attacked by Europe
The government's commitment to promoting downstream is not without obstacles. Indonesia has been repeatedly attacked by other countries related to downstreaming, starting from Europe, the International Monetary Fund (IMF), to the United States (US).
Indonesia lost the European Union's lawsuit at the WTO regarding the ban on nickel ore exports issued in 2019. The issue of Indonesia's defeat in a lawsuit for trade law has no end. After being officially declared defeated in October 2022, the government decided to continue'fight' over the defeat.
The lawsuit started with the government's attitude of stopping exports of mineral raw materials, namely nickel ore, in order to develop these raw products domestically to create many times the added value.
For your information, the WTO was founded in 1995 which changed the name from the General Agreement of Tariffs and Trade (GATT) which both regulate international trade where the rules were developed since the 80s.
Furthermore, in the Uruguay agreement the role and function of the GATT was replaced by the WTO which was designed by several countries that have advanced industrial processes since ancient times such as Europe, the United States and Japan to secure their raw material supplies.
In its latest report, Indonesia: 2023 Article IV Consultation, June 2023, the IMF asked Indonesia to gradually remove the policy of restricting nickel exports, because it was considered to be detrimental to Indonesia. This request is contained in the document IMF Executive Board Concludes 2023 Article IV Consultation with Indonesia.
The IMF requests that downstream policies, especially nickel, must be based on an analysis of further costs and benefits. According to the IMF, Indonesia's downstream policy also needs to be formed by considering the impacts of potential loss of Indonesian state revenue, as well as impacts on other regions.
"The fiscal costs in terms of forgone annual (state) revenues currently appear small and this should be monitored as part of this cost-benefit assessment," the IMF said in its report
The US is also weighing on Indonesia's downstream programs. RI nickel products are ostracized by the US. Excommunicated in the sense that it is not included in the plans to make the US Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). RI nickel products that have been downstreamed are still considered to be less green.
Through the new IRA law, it is known that the US will provide a tax credit for the purchase of an electric car. This law includes US$370 billion in subsidies for clean energy technologies.
However, it is feared that this incentive will not apply to electric cars with batteries containing nickel components from Indonesia. The reason is that Indonesia does not yet have a free trade agreement with the US and also the dominance of Chinese companies in the Indonesian nickel industry.
Proyek Kebanggaan Jokowi Berbuah Manis, Pantas Eropa Dendam
Foto: Infografis/ RI Menguasai 'Harta Karun' Ini, Eropa Dibuat Panas Dingin/Aristya rahadian
Jakarta, CNBC Indonesia - Di masa-masa berakhirnya jabatan sebagai Presiden Republik Indonesia, Presiden Joko Widodo (Jokowi) terus menegaskan komitmennya untuk mengakhiri ekspor bahan mentah. Oleh karena itu, Jokowi meminta seluruh pihak untuk berani mempertahankan program hilirisasi yang telah dimulai.
Sebelumnya, Jokowi menyebut bahwa ekspor bahan mentah yang dilakukan oleh Indonesia telah berlangsung sejak zaman VOC Belanda, yakni sudah lebih dari 400 tahun. Presiden menilai hal tersebut tidak memberikan nilai lebih terhadap Indonesia.
Selain itu, Jokowi juga memaparkan kejadian serupa juga terjadi pada tahun 1970 dan 1980, saat komoditas yang dimiliki banyak oleh Indonesia tidak memberikan nilai tambah bagi penerimaan negara.
Sehingga pemerintah terus menggaungkan program hilirisasi untuk memberikan nilai tambah terhadap penghasilan negara. Jokowi pun memberikan contoh nyata dalam hal tersebut yakni nilai ekspor yang melompat setelah memberhentikan ekspor nikel mentah.
Jokowi mengatakan, sebelum hilirisasi waktu ekspor bahan mentah RI setahun hanya mengantongi kira-kira US$2,1 miliar artinya hanya kurang lebih Rp32 triliun, begitu dihilirisasi dan diindustrialisasi menjadi US$33,8 miliar, dari Rp32 triliun menjadi Rp510 triliun kurang lebih.
Jokowi juga mengatakan sebelum hilirisasi kesempatan kerja dan pembukaan lapangan kerja adanya di negara lain, setelah hiliriasi lapangan kerja terbuka di dalam negeri. Karena, negara dari nikel itu sekali lagi dapat PPN (Pajak Pertambahan Nilai), dapat PPH perusahaan, dapat PPH karyawan, dapat royalti, dapat penerimaan negara bukan pajak, dapat bea ekspor.
Jokowi menilai ke depannya ketika ekspor bahan mentah sejumlah komoditas lainnya turut dihentikan, maka dapat mendorong lagi terbukanya lapangan kerja dalam negeri.
Jokowi juga menegaskan bahwa program hilirisasi ini tidak berhenti hanya pada industri mineral saja, tetapi juga pada sektor lainnya. Untuk itu, Presiden mengajak para pengusaha untuk turut mendukung program hilirisasi tersebut.
Menteri Investasi, Bahlil Lahadalia, juga menyampaikan bahwa program hilirisasi yang sedang dijalankan pemerintah saat ini juga dapat memberikan nilai tambah terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi daerah. Pendorongan investasi di luar Pulau Jawa terus digalakkan.
Kementerian Investasi telah mengeluarkan Peraturan Menteri Investasi nomor 1 tahun 2022 yang mendorong kolaborasi antara investasi besar dengan pengusaha nasional di daerah. Bahlil menuturkan peraturan tersebut dibuat guna mendorong investasi di daerah untuk pemerataan ekonomi.
Bahlil juga menyebutkan pendorongan investasi di luar Pulau Jawa terus digencarkan untuk mewujudkan visi pembangunan Indonesia sentris yang tidak hanya berpusat di Pulau Jawa.
Bahlil menjelaskan bahwa sejak kuartal III 2020 realisasi investasi di luar Pulau Jawa selalu lebih besar dari Pulau Jawa sebesar 50,5%, dan terus bertumbuh hingga kuartal II 2023 investasi di luar Pulau Jawa telah mencakup 53%.
Bahlil menginginkan pertumbuhan ekonomi merata dari Aceh hingga Papua.
Sebagai contoh kawasan industri hilirisasi di daerah yang memberikan kontribusi terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi wilayahnya adalah kawasan Indonesia Weda Bay Industrial Park (IWIP) di Halmahera Tengah, Maluku Utara.
Kawasan industri tersebut menjadi salah satu tempat pengolahan pemurnian bijih nikel. Menurut data yang dihimpun dari Kementerian Investasi, pertumbuhan ekonomi Maluku Utara pada 2018 hingga 2020 berada di bawah 10%.
Setelah memasuki tahun 2021 pertumbuhan ekonomi Maluku Utara meningkat menjadi 16,79% dan naik menjadi 22,94% di tahun 2022 dan semester pertama tahun 2023 berada di angka 20,26%. Kawasan industri IWIP juga berhasil menyerap tenaga kerja dari masyarakat sekitar.
Bahlil juga mengatakan program hilirisasi terutama nikel sangat penting sebagai pendorong industri otomotif yang saat ini sedang bergerak menuju pemanfaatan energi hijau melalui mobil listrik.
Berdasarkan data USGS pada Januari 2020 dan Badan Geologi 2019, mengutip dari Booklet Nikel yang dirilis Kementerian Energi dan Sumber Daya Mineral (ESDM) 2020, jumlah cadangan nikel RI tercatat mencapai 72 juta ton nikel (termasuk nikel limonite/ kadar rendah). Jumlah ini mencapai 52% dari total cadangan nikel dunia sebesar 139.419.000 ton nikel.
Hilirisasi industri nikel bisa menghasilkan berbagai jenis produk seperti feronikel, nickel pig iron (NPI), stainless steel, dan komponen baterai berbasis nikel untuk kendaraan listrik.
Bijih nikel bisa diolah menjadi FeNi/Konsentrat, lalu diolah lanjut menjadi Ni-Sulfat dan Co-Sulfat. Setelah itu diproses lanjut menjadi Precursor yang menjadi bahan dasar material baterai. Dari bahan dasar baterai inilah dihasilkan baterai dari jenis Lithium-ion Battery (LiB)
Harga nikel diperkirakan akan bertahan tinggi setidaknya dalam dua dekade ke depan karena transisi energi dari fosil ke energi ramah lingkungan.
Nikel merupakan komponen penting dalam pembuatan baterai kendaraan listrik sehingga permintaannya diperkirakan kan meningkat tajam seiring kenaikan produksi kendaraan listrik.
Komponen mobil listrik terdiri dari 40% baterai dan 60% rangka. Komponen baterai adalah nikel, kobalt, mangan, dan litium.
Dengan besarnya potensi yang dimiliki, hilirisasi nikel diharapkan bisa menjadi salah satu kunci penting untuk mencapai Indonesia emas tahun 2045.
Gairah hilirisasi nikel serta komitmen pemerintah menggalakkan tarnsisi energi juga ikut mendongrak penjualan kendaraan listrik.
Sebagai informasi tambahan, hingga semester I 2023 penjualan terhadap mobil listrik di Indonesia terus meningkat.
Menurut laporan Gabungan Industri Kendaraan Bermotor Indonesia (Gaikindo), penjualan mobil listrik di Indonesia sepanjang semester I 2023 sebanyak 23.154 unit. Angka ini telah melampaui penjualan pada tahun 2022 yang sebanyak 15.437 unit.
Penjualan mobil baterai berbasis baterai (BEV) di Indonesia sebanyak 17.280 unit sepanjang semester I 2023 yakni dari periode Januari hingga Juni 2023. Angka ini juga melampaui penjualan pada tahun 2022 yang sebanyak 10.327.
Kemudian, penjualan mobil listrik jenis hybrid di Indonesia sepanjang semester I 2023 juga meningkat menjadi 5.849 unit. Angka ini juga melebihi angka penjualan pada tahun 2022 yang sebanyak 5.100.
Hilirisasi Diserang Eropa
Komitmen pemerintah menggalakkan hilirisasi bukan tanpa halangan. Berkali-kali Indonesia diserang negara lain terkait hilirisasi mulai dari Eropa, Dana Moneter Internasional (IMF), hingga Amerika Serikat (AS).
Indonesia kalah dalam gugatan Uni Eropa di WTO perihal larangan ekspor bijih nikel yang dikeluarkan pada tahun 2019.Persoalan kekalahan Indonesia atas gugatan hukum perdagangan bak tiada akhirnya, Setelah resmi dinyatakan kalah pada Oktober 2022 lalu, ternyata Pemerintah memutuskan untuk terus 'fight' atas kekalahan tersebut.
Gugatan berawal dari sikap pemerintah yang menyetop ekspor bahan mentah mineral yakni bijih nikel untuk mengembangkan produk mentah tersebut di dalam negeri untuk menciptakan nilai tambah yang berkali-kali lipat.
Untuk diketahui, WTO berdiri pada tahun 1995 yang merubah nama dari General Agreement of Tariffs and Trade (GATT) yang sama-sama mengatur tentang perdagangan international di mana aturannya dikembangkan sejak tahun 80an.
Selanjutnya, pada perjanjian Uruguay peran dan fungsi GATT tadi digantikan dengan WTO yang didesain oleh beberapa negara yang memiliki proses industri yang maju sejak jaman dulu seperti iEropa, Amerika Serikat, maupun Jepang untuk mengamankan pasokan bahan baku mereka.
IMF dalam laporan terbarunya Indonesia: 2023 Article IV Consultation, Juni 2023, meminta Indonesia menghapus kebijakan pembatasan ekspor nikel secara bertahap, karena dinilai akan merugikan Indonesia. Permintaan tersebut tertuang dalam dokumen IMF Executive Board Concludes 2023 Article IV Consultation with Indonesia.
IMF meminta, kebijakan hilirisasi, terutama nikel harus berlandaskan analisis terkait biaya dan manfaat lebih lanjut. Kebijakan hilirisasi oleh Indonesia, menurut IMF juga perlu dibentuk dengan mempertimbangkan dampak-dampak adanya potensi kehilangan pendapatan negara Indonesia, juga berdampak terhadap wilayah lain.
"Biaya fiskal dalam hal penerimaan (negara) tahunan yang hilang saat ini tampak kecil dan ini harus dipantau sebagai bagian dari penilaian biaya-manfaat ini," kata IMF dalam laporannya
AS juga membebani program hilirisasi Indonesia. Hasil produk nikel RI dikucilkan AS. Dikucilkan dalam arti tidak masuk dalam rencana pembuatan Undang-undang (UU) pengurangan inflasi atau Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) AS. Produk nikel RI yang sudah dihilirisasi masih dinilai kurang hijau.
Melalui undang-undang baru IRA, AS diketahui bakal memberikan kredit pajak atas pembelian mobil listrik. Undang-undang ini mencakup US$ 370 miliar dalam subsidi untuk teknologi energi bersih.
Namun demikian, insentif ini dikhawatirkan tidak berlaku atas mobil listrik dengan baterai yang mengandung komponen nikel dari Indonesia. Alasannya, Indonesia belum memiliki perjanjian perdagangan bebas dengan AS dan juga dominasi perusahaan China dalam industri nikel RI.