Political Indicator Survey: Anies's electability is declining, Prabowo is rebounding

Political Indicator Survey: Anies's electability is declining, Prabowo is rebounding

The electability of the general chairman of the Gerindra Party, Prabowo Subianto, is said to have experienced a rebound in recent months and rivaled that of the former governor of DKI Jakarta, Anies Baswedan, who has actually weakened. 

This was conveyed by the Executive Director of Indonesian Political Indicators, Burhanuddin Muhtadi, in the presentation of the results of a survey they conducted on Sunday (26/3/2023). 

According to Burhanuddin, Anies Baswedan and General Chair of the Gerindra Party, Prabowo Subianto, have balanced electability in rank 2 and 3. 

"But (Anies) has weakened in the last few months. And Prabowo has surprisingly rebounded in the last few months. And his electability is now slightly overtaking with Anies Baswedan," said Burhanuddin. 

According to Burhanuddin, in February 2020, Prabowo was the most superior presidential candidate, while Anies was ranked second, and Ganjar was ranked third. 

Then in January 2021, Ganjar overtook Anies in second place. A year later, in April 2022, Ganjar topped the survey by overtaking Prabowo. 

Prabowo even dropped to third place because he was also overtaken by Anies. 

Because, around October-November 2022, Anies was declared by the Nasdem Party to be a presidential candidate. 

The results of the latest survey, said Burhanuddin, showed that Ganjar was the presidential candidate with the highest electability at 30.8 percent. Meanwhile, Anies and Prabowo have balanced electability at the 21.7 percent level. 

Based on a simulation of 34 semi-open names, the results for the top three presidential candidates with the highest electability remain unchanged. 

Burhanuddin said, from the results of the survey it was seen that Ganjar, Anies and Prabowo still dominated the top 3 positions for presidential candidates. 

Meanwhile, Burhanuddin said that candidates outside the top 3 positions remained consistent. 

This position was filled by Ridwan Kamil, Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono (AHY), to Sandiaga Uno. It's just that, said Burhanuddin, West Java Governor Ridwan Kamil's electability declined after he skyrocketed following the tragedy that befell his son, Eril. 

"Ridwan Kamil, who had skyrocketed after the tragedy that was experienced by his son, but then there was a decline," said Burhanuddin. 

The following is the electability of the 34 presidential candidates with a simulation of 34 semi-open names according to the Indonesian Political Indicator:

Ganjar Pranowo: 30.8 percent

Prabowo Subianto: 21.7 percent

Anies Baswedan: 21.7 percent

Ridwan Kamil: 6.3 percent

Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono: 1.6 percent

Sandiaga Uno: 1.1 percent

Khofifah Indar Parawansa: 1 percent

Erick Thohir: 0.9 percent

Puan Maharani: 0.6 percent

Habib Rizieq: 0.6 percent

Abdul Somad: 0.6 percent

Muhaimin Iskandar: 0.5 percent

Hary Tanoesoedibjo: 0.4 percent

Susi Pudjiastuti: 0.4 percent

Ma'ruf Amin: 0.4 percent

Bahlil Lahadalia: 0.4 percent

Mahfud MD: 0.3 percent

Andika Perkasa: 0.2 percent

Tri Rismaharini: 0.2 percent

Airlangga Hartarto: 0.2 percent Surya Paloh: 0.1 percent

Gatot Nurmantyo: 0.1 percent

Rating 23-34: 0 percent. 

The Indonesian Political Indicator Survey itself was conducted through face-to-face interviews on 9-16 February 2023 and 12-18 March 2023. 

The total sample of respondents who were validly interviewed in the February 2023 survey was 1,200 people, with a margin of error of around 2.9 percent at a 95 percent confidence level. 

Meanwhile, in March 2023, 800 respondents were interviewed with a 3.5 percent margin of error at a 95 percent confidence level. 

Sampling in this survey used a multistage random sampling method.