Why the US Dollar Is Not Shaking Amid the Issue of the New BRICS Currency

Why the US Dollar Is Not Shaking Amid the Issue of the New BRICS Currency

De-dollarization, which has been promoted by BRICS and a number of countries, has so far not been able to shake the position of the US dollar. Photo/Doc

HOLIDAY NEWS - Dedollarization which has been promoted by the BRICS and also a number of countries, has so far not been able to shake the position of the US dollar . The United States currency (USD) remains the world's main reserve currency, while the BRICS countries, which are predicted to be strong competitors, have not been able to reduce global dependence on the dollar. 

A study conducted by the Atlantic Council's GeoEconomics Center said the dollar continues to dominate foreign exchange reserve holdings, trade invoices and currency transactions globally. Then the role of the US Dollar as the main global reserve currency is projected to remain safe in the short and medium term. 

The dollar's dominance has recently become stronger as the US economy continues to strengthen, while monetary policy is tighter and geopolitical risks continue to rise. Even the US dollar still dominates as economic fragmentation strengthens the push for dedollarization by BRICS countries to switch to other international currencies and reserves. 

The Atlantic Council report said Western sanctions against Russia imposed by the Group of Developed Nations or G7 after Moscow's invasion of Ukraine had accelerated BRICS countries' efforts to develop new currencies. However, BRICS is considered to have not made significant progress in efforts to create a competing currency to the US dollar. 

BRICS, which initially only consisted of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, is now expanding with the inclusion of South Africa, Iran, Egypt, Ethiopia and the United Arab Emirates as new members starting in early 2024. 

The Atlantic Council said China's Cross-Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS) added 62 direct participants in the 12 months to May 2024, an increase of 78%. So the total is 142 direct participants and 1,394 indirect participants. 

Negotiations around an intra-BRICS payments system are still in the early stages, but bilateral and multilateral agreements within the group could form the basis for a currency exchange platform. "However, these agreements are not easily scalable, as they are negotiated on an individual basis," the report said. 

Meanwhile, China is noted to be very active in supporting renminbi liquidity through swap lines with its trading partners, but the share of the renminbi as global foreign currency reserves is said to have decreased to 2.3% from its peak position in 2022, namely 2.8%. 

Kenapa Dolar AS Tak Goyang di Tengah Isu Mata Uang Baru BRICS

Dedolarisasi yang digaungkan BRICS dan juga sejumlah negara, hingga kini belum mampu menggoyahkan posisi dolar AS. Foto/Dok

HOLIDAY NEWS - Dedolarisasi yang digaungkan BRICS dan juga sejumlah negara, hingga kini belum mampu menggoyahkan posisi dolar AS . Mata uang Amerika Serikat (USD) tetap menjadi mata uang cadangan utama dunia, ketika negara-negara BRICS yang digadang-dagang jadi pesaing kuat, belum mampu mengurangi ketergantungan global pada dolar.

Sebuah studi yang dilakukan oleh Atlantic Council's GeoEconomics Center mengatakan, dolar terus mendominasi kepemilikan cadangan devisa, faktur perdagangan, dan transaksi mata uang secara global. Lalu peran Dolar AS sebagai mata uang cadangan global utama diproyeksi tetap aman dalam jangka pendek dan menengah.

Dominasi dolar belakangan ini semakin kuat seiring kokohnya ekonomi AS, saat kebijakan moneter yang lebih ketat dan risiko geopolitik terus meningkat. Bahkan dolar AS masih mendominasi saat fragmentasi ekonomi memperkuat dorongan dedolarisasi oleh negara-negara BRICS untuk beralih ke mata uang internasional dan cadangan lainnya.

Laporan Atlantic Council mengatakan, sanksi Barat terhadap Rusia yang diberlakukan oleh kelompok negara maju atau G7 setelah invasi Moskow ke Ukraina telah mempercepat upaya negara-negara BRICS untuk mengembangkan mata uang baru. Namun BRICS dinilai belum membuat kemajuan berarti dalam upaya membuat mata uang pesaing dolar AS.

BRICS yang awalnya hanya terdiri dari Brasil, Rusia, India, China dan Afrika Selatan, kini semakin meluas dengan masuknya Afrika Selatan, Iran, Mesir, Ethiopia, dan Uni Emirat Arab sebagai member baru sejak awal tahun 2024.

Atlantic Council mengatakan Sistem Pembayaran Antar Bank Lintas Batas (CIPS) China menambahkan 62 peserta langsung dalam 12 bulan hingga Mei 2024, atau meningkat 78%. Sehingga totalnya menjadi 142 peserta langsung dan 1.394 peserta tidak langsung.

Negosiasi seputar sistem pembayaran intra-BRICS masih dalam tahap awal, tetapi perjanjian bilateral dan multilateral dalam kelompok dapat membentuk dasar untuk platform pertukaran mata uang. "Namun, perjanjian ini tidak mudah diskalakan, karena dinegosiasikan secara individual," kata laporan tersebut.

Sementara itu China tercatat sangat aktif mendukung likuiditas renminbi melalui jalur swap dengan mitra dagangnya, tetapi pangsa renminbi sebagai cadangan mata uang asing global disebut mengalami penurunan menjadi 2,3% dari posisi puncak di tahun 2022 yakni 2,8%.