Rupiah Exchange Rate Jumps! From IDR 16,000 to IDR 15,000, now IDR 15,600/US$

Foto: Ilustrasi Rupiah Melemah (CNBC Indonesia/ Edward Ricardo)

HOLIDAY NEWS -The weakening trend in the rupiah exchange rate continued until the beginning of this week. Reporting from Refinitiv, the rupiah fell 1.2% to IDR 15,665/US$ today, Monday (7/10/2024). 

If you look at the movement, the rupiah in the last few weeks does seem surprising. On August 7 2024, the rupiah will still be at IDR 16,000/US$. 

The Rupiah then strengthened sharply within a short period of time. On September 25 2024, the rupiah strengthened to the level of IDR 15,095/US$. 

Conditions change, when there is significant external movement. The Rupiah along with many other currencies was hit to the level of IDR 15,400/US$ and continued to the level of IDR 15,600. 

Head of Research at Panin Sekuritas, Nico Laurens, explained that the weakening of the rupiah was caused by several things. The first is China's stimulus policy. This stimulus was issued by the Chinese government through the Chinese central bank (PBoC) to save China's economic condition which is currently sluggish due to being hit by bad credit from giant property developers to the ongoing trade war and the effects of shifting production bases to other countries. 

The PBoC launched a stimulus package that includes interest rate cuts, freeing up cash for banks, as well as liquidity support for the stock market which, combined, reaches more than IDR 4,000 trillion, surpassing Indonesia's 2025 APBN at around IDR 3,000 trillion. 

The next problem is the war in the Middle East. According to him, Israel carried out direct attacks on several countries, raising fears of a spike in world oil prices. 

"In a situation like this, investors prefer to go to a safer place," he said. DXY at 09:17 WIB experienced a slight decline of 0.07% to 102.45. 

Head of the BI Monetary Management Department (DPM) Edi Susianto will monitor exchange rate developments. Intervention steps were taken to maintain exchange rate stability. 

"We entered the market to ensure that the supply and demand balance in the market is maintained. Forex supply from corporations is still quite supportive in the market," he concluded. 

HOLIDAY NEWS -Tren pelemahan nilai tukar rupiah terus berlanjut hingga awal pekan ini. Dilansir dari Refinitiv, rupiah anjlok 1,2% di angka Rp15.665/US$ pada hari ini, Senin (7/10/2024).

Jika melihat pergerakan, rupiah dalam beberapa pekan terakhir memang tampak mengejutkan. Pada 7 Agustus 2024, rupiah masih bertengger di level Rp16.000/US$.

Rupiah kemudian menguat tajam dalam kurun waktu yang tidak terlalu lama. Pada 25 September 2024, rupiah menguat hingga sampai ke level Rp15.095/US$.

Kondisi berubah, ketika ada pergerakan eksternal yang signifikan. Rupiah bersama banyak mata uang lain dihantam sampai ke level Rp15.400/US$ dan berlanjut ke level Rp15.600.

Head of Research Panin Sekuritas, Nico Laurens menjelaskan pelemahan rupiah disebabkan oleh beberapa hal. Pertama adalah kebijakan stimulus China. Stimulus tersebut dikeluarkan pemerintah China melaui bank sentral Tiongkok (PBoC) guna menyelamatkan kondisi ekonomi Tiongkok yang tengah lesu akibat dilanda kredit macet dari pengembang properti raksasa sampai perang dagang yang berkelanjutan dan efek berpindah-nya basis produksi ke negara lain.

PBoC meluncurkan paket stimulus yang mencakup pemangkasan suku bunga, pembebasan uang tunai untuk bank-bank, serta dukungan likuiditas untuk pasar saham yang jika digabung mencapai lebih dari Rp4000 triliun, melampaui APBN Indonesia 2025 di kisaran Rp3000 triliun.

Masalah berikutnya adalah perang di Timur Tengah. Israel, menurutnya melakukan serangan agenda langsung ke beberapa negara sehingga menimbulkan kekhawatiran lonjakan harga minyak dunia.

"Dalam situasi seperti ini investor lebih memilih ke tempat yang lebih aman," ujarnya. DXY pada pukul 09:17 WIB mengalami penurunan tipis 0,07% ke angka 102,45.

Kepala Departemen Pengelolaan Moneter (DPM) BI Edi Susianto akan memantau perkembangan nilai tukar. Langkah intervensi diambil demi menjaga stabilitas nilai tukar.

"Kami masuk pasar untuk memastikan keseimbangan supply demand di pasar tetap terjaga. Supply valas dari korporasi masih cukup support di market," pungkasnya.